Akron vs Ohio State NCAAF Picks & Predictions: Offensive Onslaught Hits Week 1 Battle
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Akron vs Ohio State NCAAF Picks & Predictions: Offensive Onslaught Hits Week 1 Battle
With Ryan Day's offense adding some serious firepower over the offseason, the Buckeyes are poised to lead an offensively charged home opener in Columbus. Find out more in Rob Paul's latest expert analysis.
Rob Paul - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst
Aug 29, 2024 • 18:41 ET • 4 min read
NCAAF
Match starts: 1 hrs
Ohio State Buckeyes Logo OSU
52 %
-48 -102
pinnacle
Akron Zips Logo AKR
48 %
+49 -110
bet365
EXPERT PICK - TOTAL
o58.5 (-110)
Read Analysis
Emeka Egbuka Ohio State Buckeyes NCAAF
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Ohio State’s chase for a national title begins Saturday at home against one of the worst teams in the FBS, Akron.
The Buckeyes are a 48.5-point favorite against the lowly Zips, and we’re expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in our Akron vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for August 31.
Akron vs Ohio State prediction
My best bet
Over 58.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The last time Ohio State hosted Akron was in 2021, a 59-7 Buckeyes win.
When Ryan Day’s teams play Group of Five programs, a lot of points tend to be scored by his offense. Last year saw the Buckeyes put up 63 points against Western Kentucky, their lone G5 opponent in 2023.
That was with Kyle McCord at QB in the worst season Day’s offense has had since he took over in Columbus. Even with a new starting quarterback in Will Howard, Ohio State is poised to light up the Zips.
Akron has long been one of the worst teams in the country as a MAC bottom feeder, and things didn’t get better in Joe Moorehead’s second season at the helm last year.
The Zips were 2-10 and ranked 81st in points allowed per game (28.0) despite playing a fairly lackluster schedule. Against two of its toughest MAC opponents last season, Akron gave up 55 points to Northern Illinois and 41 to Bowling Green.
Well, this Buckeyes offense is a whole lot better than anything a MAC team can field. In a down season, Ohio State still managed to be fourth in EPA per pass and 23rd in EPA per rush.
And despite losing Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State brought back most of its top talent. That includes its two best offensive linemen, potential first-round receiver Emeka Egbuka, and star running back TreVeyon Henderson.
But what makes Ohio State so scary on offense this season is what Day added. Not only did he get Howard and Quinshon Judkins in the transfer portal, but he also landed No. 1 recruit Jeremiah Smith and hired Chip Kelly as his offensive coordinator.
This offense alone should be capable of hitting the Over, but Akron might be able to chip in and help. The Zips scored 27 points against Indiana last season and now have a new quarterback, Ben Finley, who is teaming up with former LSU receiver Alex Adams.
With one of the worst run defenses in the country last season — ranking 97th in EPA per rush — the Zips are going to struggle mightily with Judkins. The Ole Miss transfer finished ninth in the country last season in rushing yards after contact (871) and has scored 34 touchdowns over the last two years.
He’s not the only new threat on Ohio State’s offense that Akron is going to have to deal with either. Smith was the top recruit in the country for a reason, and he's slated to be the first true freshman to start Week 1 on offense under Day.
Rumors have been flying for weeks that he could be as good as Harrison, and that’s got to be terrifying for this Akron secondary. The Zips have four new starters in their secondary, and both Smith and Egbuka should toast them. Egbuka dealt with injuries last season, but he racked up 60+ yards in 10 of 13 games two years ago.
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